This study uses data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) to examine mental health trends of 16-29 year olds before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom (2001-2022). Mental health trends were measured by the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). We use linear fixed effects regression models to construct an individual-specific counterfactual level of mental health, accounting for pre-pandemic trends, variations in mental health over time, and potential mode effects due to changes in the questionnaire and data collection mode over the pandemic years.
Findings indicate a significant increase in reported mental ill-health already prior to the pandemic (cases of psychological distress increased from 15% in 2001 to 30% in 2019), with a minimal and time-limited impact attributable to COVID-19 (increase by 3.2 percentage points). A subsequent recovery was observed, with no long-term adverse effects of the pandemic on average mental ill-health. Variations in pandemic effects were observed across household income and ethnicity, but not age, demonstrating greater resilience among some young adults than often reported. Interestingly, we note a significantly more substantial impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on respondents in the top third of the household income distribution, suggesting that social isolation and reduced access to services during the pandemic brought the experiences of traditionally advantaged groups closer to those already faced by children from disadvantaged backgrounds, and/or that emergency income support measures during the pandemic may have eased the economic burden for disadvantaged youths.
Despite the use of nationally representative longitudinal data, the results may be limited due to reliance on self-report data and potential selection bias. Nonetheless, the findings highlight the magnitude of the mental health burden in youth already present before the pandemic and the need for strengthening mental health services and support systems for youth.

Co-authors

Dr Golo Henseke, University College London