This study explores whether political identity and polarisation influence fertility outcomes, drawing on the narratives of the future framework (Vignoli et al., 2020), which emphasizes the role of economic expectations and uncertainty in fertility behavior. Inspired by this theoretical framework, we argue that in a polarized political system, individuals who identify with the ruling party may feel more “at home” in their country and anticipate stability and prosperity, which could encourage them to have children. In contrast, opposition supporters may feel alienated, be less optimistic about the future, and experience economic and political uncertainty, leading to delayed or reduced intentions to have children. Previous research linking political identity and childbearing has demonstrated the impact on fertility of Trump’s 2016 victory (Dahl, Lu, & Mullins, 2022), the electoral performance of Sweden’s right-wing parties (Comolli & Andersson, 2021), and the Brexit referendum (Mavropoulos, 2024). However, these studies either rely on regional total fertility rate data or lack individual-level measures of both political identity and childbearing decisions. Our study addresses this gap by combining individual-level data on political identity and fertility outcomes to investigate the impact of several UK general elections (from 1997 to 2019) on childbearing decisions. We hypothesize that the impact of elections resulting in a change of ruling party on individual fertility will be greater than effects of elections where the Labour or Conservative parties remained in power, and that more recent elections will have a greater impact due to higher polarization. Using data from the UK Understanding Society longitudinal study, we show a significant decrease in the probability of conceiving a child among Labour supporters in the period following the 2010 general election (compared to the pre-election period and Conservative Party supporters). The only other election that resulted in a change of ruling party (1997) did not yield significant effects. Results from the Brexit referendum also did not turn out to be impactful.

Co-author

Ewa Weychert, University of Warsaw