Children living in areas with more hot food takeaway (HFTs) outlets are more likely to be living with obesity. However, it is not clear whether this is causal, or if so, what are the mediating behaviours that lead to this effect. In this paper, we document the impact of the local food environment (number of HFTs, and number of supermarkets per square kilometre in home neighbourhood) on the Body Mass Index classifications of Reception and Year 6 children in Hertfordshire from academic years-ending 2013-2023, using data from the National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP). We show (for example) that an extra 5 HFTs per square kilometre (approx. 1 standard deviation) increases both Reception and Year 6 children’s obesity prevalence by approx. 0.275ppt, after controlling for children’s access to active green space (which has a significant protective effect), ethnicity, local unemployment rates and overall deprivation index, a rich set of characteristics of the school they attend, and timing of measurement. In ongoing work, we investigate mechanisms, by studying the impact of local food environments on expenditure and consumption of High Fat Salt and Sugar Items and Ultra Processed Food, family mealtime behaviours, in nationally representative survey data including the Living Costs and Food Survey, National Diet and Nutrition Survey, and UK Household Longitudinal Study. We will also investigate the impacts of, and exploit variation in, local planning policies to restrict the proliferation of HFT outlets.

Co-authors

Hettie Burn; Professor Birgitta Rabe, University of Essex